Shelton returns to Montreal as the defending champion and, on the evidence of the past week, in his cleanest form for some time. Fonseca arrives having taken out two major finalists back to back. The market has them close to level, and that reading is hard to argue with.
Two servers, one very high bounce
Against Brooksby, Shelton was patient and built points rather than ending them early. Against Bergs the serve worked on placement and disguise, and not one of his own service games came under genuine pressure. The Montreal bounce flatters the left-handed delivery: the wide ball into the ad court and the kicker into the backhand both sit up.
Fonseca got past Tsitsipas and Ruud the hard way. He started slowly in both, lost serve or hung on through break points early, then rebuilt and finished as the more aggressive man, including a set rescued from 3-5 down in the tiebreak against Ruud. His first serve is heavy off both wings, and once the rhythm arrives it is not easily read.
Why 23.5 looks short
With holds this cheap, breaks become events rather than routine, and sets drift towards 7-5 and tiebreaks. That is exactly how both of Fonseca's matches here have gone, and Shelton's recent close finishes, including the defeats with match points in hand at Halle and Wimbledon, tell the same story.
The shape of Fonseca's form matters too: a conceded or grinding first set followed by a rise in the second points straight at a deciding set, and any third set clears the line comfortably. Even a straight-sets night gets there with one tiebreak and a 7-5. Under needs an unusually one-sided evening from a match priced as a coin flip.
Prediction: Total Over 23.5 games, odds 1.97
