Pronostics pour Berfu Cengiz — Teodora Kostovic

Rankings favour Kostovic, but Ankara has not been one-way traffic: Cengiz is 4-0, all in straight sets, and needed just 49 minutes to beat Deniz Dilek. She also beat Martyna Kubka, who had beaten Kostovic in Warsaw in August.

The finals experience runs the other way: Cengiz has played 15 finals and was runner-up at Gran Canaria in August; this is the biggest final of Kostovic’s career. Kostovic’s nearly two-hour semifinal included a missed set point and a break conceded at 4-4 before she broke straight back. In São Paulo, she looked nervous against Kaitlin Quevedo after the early lead disappeared, with a backhand error ending her last chance.

Cengiz +3.5 games is the better way to back an upset that looks plausible without needing to call it. A tight two-set match or any three-setter can cover; at nearly 3.00, the outright win was tempting, but the handicap gives useful room.

The Over leans with a competitive match, but Kostovic’s heavier serve and stronger hard-court record could shorten it. Cengiz’s season was mostly on clay before Ankara, and some of her opponents here were modest; that is the risk behind the cushion.