Pronostics pour Yue Yuan — Mirra Andreeva

Andreeva’s hard-court leads have not always held. She went from winning the first set against Kostyuk to losing 0-6, 2-6; against Gauff, she had match points, then lost the tie-break and the decider, later saying she should have risked more.

In Singapore, Fernandez broke her again after Andreeva had fought back to level the second set. She arrives in Beijing off a bye, without a match on these courts; Yuan has already beaten Oliynykova 6-2, 6-3, pressing on return and keeping the score under control.

Yuan +6.5 games asks Andreeva to win by seven or more. Yuan can stay inside that margin by keeping one set close, and taking a set guarantees the handicap; at 1.89, the price leaves room for either outcome.

Over 17.5 games covers many of the same competitive scores, but pays less and loses if Yuan wins outright. Andreeva to win is too short to make the case. Yuan’s second serve leaves a clean rout possible; that is the risk.